SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply is increased by 176,692 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.637 million on increased imports from last month. On March 13, 2023, USTR announced the reallocation of 247,182 STRV from countries that stated they do not plan to ship their original raw sugar TRQ allocation. USDA projects that only 46.5 percent of the reallocation, or 114,905 STRV, will enter, implying a new shortfall projection of 132,277, down from 254,632 projected last month.
High-tier tariff imports are increased to 225,000 STRV on raw sugar imported during March by a refiner and by an increase in projected monthly refined imports based on the pace to date. There is a small partial offset of 10,179 STRV from combined calendar year 2022 FTA TRQs where the sugar failed to enter before December 31.
Beet sugar production is down by 10,285 STRV on slightly lower recovery and a corresponding small increase in beet pile shrink. Cane sugar production is up 5,430 STRV on processor reporting in Florida and Texas.
Because sugar use is unchanged, ending stocks increase by the full extent of the supply increase to 1.897 million STRV, resulting in an increase in the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 14.89 percent. Mexico sugar production is increased by 75,000 metric tons (MT) to 5.560 million. It is projected that area harvested will be close to the 828,941 hectares (ha) projected by CONDADESUCA but remains below in yield (USDA’s projection of 61.07 MT/ha against 62.37) and below in sucrose recovery (10.98 percent against 11.20). The production increase flows through to an increase in IMMEX deliveries to 331,037 MT and in ending stocks to 937,216 MT.
On March 29, the Department of Commerce indicated that the government of Mexico stated that Mexico will be able to supply U.S. sugar needs of 1.118 million MT during the remainder of the Export Limit period. USDA projects Mexico production of below 99.2 WASDE-635-4 polarity sugar could be as high as 840,000 MT or about 75 percent of allocation. USDA continues to project lower deliveries to IMMEX to maintain Mexico sugar supply and use balance for 2022/23, assuming that Mexico will export up to its Export Limit. USDA projects Mexico imports for IMMEX at 25,000, unchanged from last month.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly higher supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised 5 million bushels on higher imports, based on the pace of Census imports reported to date.
Domestic use is lowered 25 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use, which is decreased to 55 million. The downward revision is based on the implied disappearance for the second and third quarters indicated in the NASS Grain Stocks report. Wheat exports remain at 775 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes for White and Hard Red Spring exports.
Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 30 million bushels to 598 million but are still 14 percent below last year. The 2022/23 season-average farm price is forecast $0.10 per bushel lower at $8.90, based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23. The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for increased supplies, higher consumption, and reduced trade and stocks. Supplies are raised 0.7 million tons to 1,061.1 million, primarily on higher beginning stocks for Syria and increased production for Ethiopia.
Global consumption is increased 2.9 million tons to 796.1 million, mainly on higher food, seed, and industrial use for India, and increased feed and residual use for China and the EU. World trade is lowered 1.2 million tons to 212.7 million on reduced exports by the EU, Argentina, and Brazil more than offsetting increases for Russia and Ukraine. China’s wheat imports are raised 2.0 million tons to 12.0 million, which would be the highest imports for China since 1995/96. China’s imports are raised on strong imports to date, particularly from Australia; China is now the leading 2022/23 global wheat importer.
Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 265.1 million, the lowest since 2015/16. This month, India, the Philippines, and Ukraine are projected to have lower stocks, more than offsetting increases for Syria, the EU, and the United States.