SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased 239,152 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.941 million on increases in production and imports. Beet sugar production is increased by 41,049 STRV mostly on higher expected production occurring in August and September from the early season 2024 sugarbeet crop.
Likewise, cane sugar production in Louisiana is increased by 53,024 STRV on higher expected production in September from the early season 2024 sugarcane crop.
Imports are increased by 145,000 STRV on increases for re-export imports (up 32,000) and high-tier tariff/other imports (up 82,400 STRV). The raw high-tier tariff estimate is at 824,380 STRV and the refined high-tier tariff estimate is at 289,574. Calendar year FTA imports expected in the fourth quarter of 2024 arrived in August, adding 25,600 STRV to 2023/24 but reducing FTA imports for 2024/25 by the same amount.
Imports from Mexico are increased for small amounts expected to enter in August and September. Use is increased modestly as increased re-export product deliveries are only partially offset by a reduction in exports. Residually-estimated ending stocks stand at 2.278 million STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.0 percent, up from 16.1 last month.
U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is decreased by 208,276 STRV as decreases in imports and production are only partially offset by greater beginning stocks. Imports are down 403,124 STRV mostly on lower imports expected to enter from Mexico. Cane sugar production is increased for Louisiana on higher expected sugarcane yield forecast by NASS but processors in Florida expect a modest decrease in sugarcane yields to reduce sugar production.
Beet sugar production is projected at 5.311 million STRV, a decrease from last month due to a lower NASS forecast of national sugarbeet area. There are no changes from last month for use. Ending stocks are projected at 1.777 million STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2 percent.
For 2023/24, Mexico has a small increase in imports for consumption bringing the total up to 679,000 metric tons (MT). Imports for IMMEX are unchanged at 136,700 MT. Decreased domestic deliveries to the IMMEX program more than offset a small increase in deliveries for human consumption. The end result of these small adjustments is to increase carryover stocks by 22,344 MT. For 2024/25, production, imports, deliveries, and ending stocks are all unchanged from last month. The increase in initial supply implies a one-to-one increase in Mexico exports up to 867,035 MT.
The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) uses the September WASDE to set the Mexico Export Limit for the period beginning on October 1. The Export Limit will be the higher of exports needed to result in an U.S. ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent multiplied by 0.7 or the Export Limit from the July WASDE. Because the Target Quantity of U.S. Needs from this WASDE calculated at 262,035 MT is lower than the Export Limit of 394,963 MT established by the DOC on July 15, the latter amount is used for projecting exports to the United States in the WASDE. Exports to destinations not under license are projected at 529,012 MT.
WHEAT: The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.70 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are raised primarily on Canada as Statistics Canada 2023/24 ending stocks were significantly higher than USDA’s previous estimate. Canada’s ending stocks were also raised substantially higher for 2021/22 and 2022/23 based on Statistics Canada revisions.
World wheat production is lowered 1.4 million tons to 796.9 million, but remains a record, as a reduction in the EU is only partially offset by higher production for Australia and Ukraine. The EU is reduced 4.0 million tons to 124.0 million on unfavorable harvest weather for France and Germany. Australia’s production is raised 2.0 million tons to 32.0 million on favorable conditions in Western Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland. Ukraine is raised 0.7 million tons to 22.3 million based on harvest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture.
Global consumption is increased 0.9 million tons to 804.9 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for several countries more than offsetting a reduction for the EU. World trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada, and Ukraine more than offset a reduction for the EU. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 0.6 million tons to 257.2 million as increases for Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan more than offset reductions for Australia, Turkey, and several other countries.