World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates – October 2024

Published online: Nov 11, 2024 News
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SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply and use for 2023/24 are updated with final year data from SMD and FAS. Production is increased 171,190 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on larger than-expected production in September for beet sugar and for cane sugar in Louisiana.

Imports are decreased by 89,030 STRV mainly on a reduction in re-export imports estimated by FAS. Deliveries for human consumption are increased 53,540 STRV to 12.354 million on a pickup in deliveries in September. Re-export products are reduced 31,984 based on processors’ adjustments to earlier submitted data. Exports at 249,231 STRV are up 24,231 over last month. Ending stocks are reported by processors at 2.162 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16.87 percent.

USDA/NASS in the November Crop Production decreased 2024/25 national sugarbeet yield to 32.7 tons/acre from 33.1 tons/acre last month. Sugarbeet production decreases by 372,000 tons to 35.201 million.

NASS also decreased the sugarcane yield in Louisiana to 32.0 tons/acre from 32.2 last month. The Louisiana sugarcane crop for sugar is projected lower at 15.846 million tons. Crop year beet sugar and Louisiana cane production are lowered on this basis. Fiscal year production levels are reduced even more in both cases as production levels in September counted in 2023/24 were larger than expected, as mentioned above. Beet sugar production is projected at 5.210 million STRV, down 136,910 from last month. With Florida cane sugar production the same as last month, national cane sugar production is projected at 4.066 million STRV, down 81,349 from last month.

Imports are increased by 12,968 STRV mostly attributable to increased imports of high-tier raw sugar reported by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) through the first week of November. Deliveries for human consumption are up 50,000 to 12.350 million in line with the increase for 2023/24. Ending stocks at 1.464 million STRV are down 323,974 for an ending stocks-to use ratio of 11.66 percent.

For 2023/24 Mexico imports of sugar for its IMMEX program are reduced by nearly 100,000 metric tons (MT) based mostly on data made available to USDA by CONADESUCA. This data is not available on a monthly basis but only after the marketing year is over. Deliveries to IMMEX are decreased by a like amount. There are also fewer deliveries from domestic production into the program. For 2024/25 imports are increased by 70,755 MT. The FAS Mexico City Post reports that this sugar was booked in 2023/24 but has yet to arrive. Exports are residually projected at 1.006 million MT. Exports under license to the United States are unchanged at 338,023 MT. Exports not under license at 667,803 MT are up 73,829 over last month.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks but unchanged exports. Supplies are raised on higher imports, increased 5 million bushels to 120 million, all on Hard Red Spring. Domestic use is raised, all on food use, based mainly on the NASS Flour Milling Products report. Exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are increased 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.60 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for larger supplies and consumption, reduced trade, and slightly lower stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 0.7 million tons to 1,061.0 million as higher production for Kazakhstan more than offsets reductions for Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and the EU. Kazakhstan’s production is raised 2.0 million tons to 18.0 million on harvest results. This is the third-largest crop on record for Kazakhstan. Global consumption is increased 0.9 million tons to 803.4 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for Kazakhstan with its larger production.

World trade is 1.2 million tons lower at 214.7 million on reduced exports for Turkey and Kazakhstan. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are lowered 0.1 million tons to 257.6 million as decreases for Argentina, China, and Brazil are not completely offset by increases for Kazakhstan and Turkey.