NOTE: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place. U.S.
Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered under USMCA, which include most agricultural products in the WASDE. Reciprocal tariffs are also scheduled to begin on April 2. However, until these are in effect, WASDE does not incorporate them into commodity forecasts. Despite U.S. tariffs being suspended, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place. These are accounted for in WASDE estimates and are assumed to continue. U.S. tariffs on China and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are assumed to remain in place.
SUGAR
U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is decreased by 75,701 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.317 million on decreases in imports more than offsetting an increase in sugar production. Based on processor reporting in the Sweetener Market Data (SMD), cane sugar production in Louisiana is increased by 28,679 STRV to 2.049 million on greater production in January than projected last month. Cane sugar production in Florida is reduced 26,763 STRV to 1.971 million on processors’ reporting of a lower sugarcane yield.
Beet sugar production is increased 35,980 STRV on an increase in sucrose recovery from sliced beets more than offsetting a small increase in beet pile shrink and slightly lower sugar from desugared molasses. The increase in recovery is due to resolution of certain factory problems limiting earlier season production in the Pacific Northwest.
Sugarbeets remaining to be processed are high in sucrose content and high in juice purity and are storing well. Slicing is expected to extend into May to compensate for earlier difficulties in processing plants. Processors in the Red River Valley are confident of beet storage conditions being manageable through the rest of the season. Any production problems in Michigan were recognized early on by the processor and incorporated into earlier sugar WASDEs.
Sugar imports are decreased 113,597 STRV mostly on lower imports from Mexico. In March, the Department of Commerce (DOC) sets the final Mexico export limit at the higher of two amounts; namely, U.S. Sugar Needs calculated from the March WASDE as defined in the CVD Suspension Agreement or an Export Limit previously established by DOC. The Export Limit set by DOC from December WASDE is determined to be higher than the U.S. Needs in this month’s WASDE. Partially offsetting is an increase in high-tier tariffs imports of 10,588 STRV on actual entries exceeding last month’s projection. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 35,000 STRV to 12.240 million on lower recent period deliveries than originally projected. The net effect on ending stocks is a decrease of 40,701 STRV to 1.872 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.04 percent. Mexico sugar production for 2024/25 is unchanged from last month at 4.859 million metric tons (MT). Based on FAS Mexico City reporting, imports are increased to 189,000 MT and deliveries for consumption are lowered to 4.198 million MT. Ending stocks are decreased slightly and exports are residually projected at 957,021 MT, an increase of WASDE-658-4 100,095 over last month. Exports under license to the United States are reduced 106,282 MT to 425,127 while exports to other destinations are increased 206,377 MT to 531,894.
WHEAT
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 140 million on a continued robust pace. By-class increases were made to Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum. Wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 835 million, based on Census exports through January and expectations for sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year. By-class reductions were made to HRS, Soft Red Winter, and Durum. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $5.50 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook this month for 2024/25 is for larger supplies, higher consumption, reduced trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are projected up by 5.4 million tons to 1,066.7 million, mainly on increased beginning stocks for Turkey and higher production for Australia, Argentina and Ukraine. Australia’s production is raised 2.1 million tons to 34.1 million, which is Australia’s third largest production on record. This is based on the latest ABARES estimate, where most of the higher production was in Western Australia and New South Wales. Turkey’s 2024/25 beginning stocks are raised 2.2 million tons on a multi-year downward revision in its food, seed, and industrial usage. Global consumption is raised 2.9 million tons to 806.7 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for Australia, EU, and Thailand. World trade is 0.9 million tons lower at 208.1 million on decreased exports for EU, Russia, and the United States. China’s imports are reduced 1.5 million tons to 6.5 million and are less than half of its 2023/24 imports. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 2.5 million tons to 260.1 million, mostly on increases for Turkey, Argentina, the United States, Australia, and Russia.