SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply and use for 2021/22 is revised to incorporate complete fiscal year estimates in USDA’s Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Beet sugar production is estimated at 5.155 million short tons, raw value (STRV), an increase over last month of 77,618 due to more production in September than expected last month. Louisiana cane sugar production is lowered by 58,824 STRV to 1.923 million on lower-than-expected production in September.
Along with small changes in some other components, deliveries for human consumption are lowered by 81,845 STRV to 12.470 million. Most of this decrease is attributable to very low direct consumption imports in September. The final year estimate of ending stocks is 1.814 million STRV. This is 40,823 STRV more than last month and results in a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.3 percent. U.S. sugar supply in 2022/23 is lowered 196,055 STRV from last month on lower total production and imports only mildly offset by higher beginning stocks.
Beet sugar production is lowered 111,341 STRV to 4.994 million. Beet processors reduced their forecast of sugarbeets available for slicing due to higher expected beet pile shrink. An increase in cane sugar production partially offsets the beet sugar decline. Florida production is increased 20,923 STRV to 1.989 million based on a higher sugarcane yield forecast by both processors and NASS. Louisiana production is increased to 2.006 million STRV on increased area harvested and on adjustments made for September production. Imports are reduced by 168,986 STRV mainly on lower imports from Mexico based on lower exportable supply (see below) that offsets a 25,000 STRV increase in high-tier tariff imports from raw sugar imported by a refiner in early November. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 25,000 STRV in line with the 2021/22 reduction.
Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.701 million STRV for ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent. Mexico sugar production for 2022/23 is the same as last month at 5.900 million metric tons (MT). Area harvested is expected at about 800,000 hectares and yields are unchanged from last month. Although good rainfall amounts came in September, they should have arrived earlier in the growing season, or at least by August, to have had a significant effect on production. Total imports for combined use in consumption and IMMEX are lowered by 15,000 MT to more closely match imports recorded in 2021/22.
Strong deliveries for consumption in September pushed the total for 2021/22 to 4.113 million MT, an increase of 63,100 MT relative to last month. Deliveries of high fructose corn syrup in 2021/22 amounted to 1.291 million MT, dry basis and this same amount is projected for 2022/23. Per capita sweetener consumption for 2021/22 at 41.09 kilograms is carried forward to 2022/23 and implies sugar deliveries for consumption at 4.168 million MT. This is a 117,598 MT increase over last month. Deliveries for IMMEX for 2022/23 at 533,000 MT closely match the recorded total for 2021/22. Ending stocks for 2022/23 at 979,291 MT provide enough sugar to meet use in 2023/24 before the start of the harvest campaign in November. Exports are residually projected at 1.219 million MT, a decrease of 183,616. Exports under license to the United States are reduced 166,020 MT and other exports are reduced 17,596 MT to zero.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. Total domestic use is projected 5 million bushels higher at 1,093 million as an increase in food use more than offsets a decrease in seed use. Food use is raised 7 million bushels to a record 977 million on strong calendar year third quarter wheat ground for flour reported in the latest NASS Flour Milling Products. All wheat exports are unchanged at 775 million bushels, with offsetting changes for White wheat and Durum.
Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 571 million, the lowest level since 2007/08. The projected 2022/23 season average farm price is unchanged at $9.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 1.3 million tons to 1,059.0 million based on increases in beginning stocks and production. World production is raised 1.0 million tons to 782.7 million as larger production in Australia, Kazakhstan, and the UK more than offsets declines in Argentina and the EU. Production in Australia is raised 1.5 million tons to 34.5 million as above average rain over the past month supported crop development and boosted yields, following widespread favorable conditions earlier in the growing season. Argentina production is lowered as continued widespread dry conditions through most of October further eroded yield potential, especially in northern areas.
Feed and residual use is raised 0.9 million tons as increases in the EU, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam more than offset a decline in India. However, FSI consumption is lowered 1.5 million tons primarily on decreases for Bangladesh and Indonesia. The global forecast for trade is increased 0.3 million tons to a record 208.7 million, primarily on higher exports from Australia, Kazakhstan, and the UK that more than offset a reduction in exports by Argentina. Projected global ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 267.8 million, with increases for Australia and India and a decrease for the EU accounting for most of the change.