SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is decreased by 47,192 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.894 million on production decreases only partially offset by an increase in imports.
Beet sugar production is decreased by 41,743 STRV to 5.117 million on lower August and September production. Cane processors in Louisiana estimate their September production down by 26,078 STRV due to weather-related delays associated with Hurricane Francine. Net imports are up 20,629 STRV as increased high-tier tariff raw imports are only partially offset by lower TRQ entries and re-export imports.
High-tier tariff raw sugar imports for the year are estimated at 886,539 STRV (up 62,159); high-tier refined at 289,483 STRV (same as last month); and sugar from imported molasses at 56,161 STRV (same as last month).
Use is unchanged and ending stocks are at 2.231 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 17.6 percent. USDA/NASS in the October Crop Production increased national sugarbeet yield to 33.1 tons/acre. Sugarbeet production increases by 185,000 tons to 35.573 million. For 2024/25 net beet sugar production is up 36,283 STRV on increased sugarbeet production and on revisions made to August and September production for both 2024 and 2025.
Although Louisiana production formerly expected in September is now expected to be produced after October 1, a downward adjustment to sugar expected in September 2025 based on recent historical data was made that more than offsets the increase. TRQ imports amounting to 10,100 STRV from Free Trade Agreements for sugar that did not enter as expected in the calendar third quarter are now expected to enter in the fourth quarter. High-tier/Other sugar is increased by 28,035 STRV on raw sugar that entered the United States in early October. Use is unchanged and ending stocks at 1.788 million STRV are up 11,746 over last month.
For 2023/24 Mexico supply has an increase in imports for consumption of 38,000 metric tons (MT) that is carried over to 2024/25 in beginning stocks. IMMEX deliveries for 2024/25 are decreased by 23,000 MT to 402,000 based on projections from the FAS Post in Mexico City. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are up by a small 4,828 MT and residually projected exports at 931,966 MT are up 64,961. Exports under license to the United States are unchanged from last month at 338,023 MT.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 6 million bushels to 2,783 million, as reduced beginning stocks and lower production are partly offset by larger imports.
Production is reduced 11 million bushels to 1,971 million, as reported in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary released September 30. Imports are raised 10 million bushels to 115 million based on a strong pace of imports for the first three months of the marketing year. Domestic use is raised 10 million bushels to 120 million on higher feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report released September 30 indicated a year-to-year increase for first quarter (June-August) feed and residual disappearance from a year earlier.
Exports remain at 825 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks are lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million, but still up 17 percent from the previous year. The season average farm price is unchanged at $5.70 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for reduced supplies, consumption, and trade but slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies are reduced 1.9 million tons to 1,060.3 million primarily on reduced production for the EU, Russia, India, and Brazil.
Declines in supplies were only partially offset by higher production for Ukraine and larger beginning stocks for Russia. Global consumption is reduced 2.4 million tons to 802.5 million, with lower Food, Seed, and Industrial use in India and Afghanistan. World trade is decreased 0.7 million tons to 215.8 million on reduced exports by the EU that are partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 0.5 million tons to 257.7 million, but are still the lowest since 2015/16.