SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is decreased by 101,129 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.393 million on decreases in production and imports greater than increased beginning stocks of 6,384.
Cane sugar production in Florida is decreased by 55,131 STRV to 1.997 million on processors’ reporting of lower sucrose recovery. Cane sugar in Louisiana is increased 6,001 STRV on final season production reported by processors.
Beet sugar production is increased 15,065 STRV on more sugar produced from desugared molasses and a small increase in sucrose recovery only marginally reduced by an increase in beet pile shrink reported by processors.
TRQ imports are decreased by 95,862 STRV on an FAS survey of all countries accorded export access into the U.S. sugar market. Total TRQ shortfall is projected at 189,922 STRV. A partial offset results from high-tier tariff/Other imports being increased by 22,414 STRV from Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data through the first week of February, above what was expected for the period last month.
Deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12.275 million on lower recent period deliveries than originally projected. The net effect on ending stocks is a decrease of 26,129 STRV to 1,912,685 for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.33 percent. Sugar production in Mexico is projected at 4.859 metric tons (MT). This is a decrease from last month’s 5.094 million, primarily on lower sucrose recovery and lower area harvested than projected last month. The gap between area harvested and the forecast by CONADESUCA has been growing for each successive week and stands at 59,872 hectares as of week 18 (area harvested – 210,667 hectares vs. CONADESUCA projection of 270,539). Total imports are projected at 125,000 MT. This sugar was contracted for in 2023/24 but only now reaching importers in Mexico. Deliveries into the IMMEX program are decreased 47,170 MT on the increased use of HFCS by IMMEX manufactures of sweetener-containing products. With a small decrease in ending stocks, exports are decreased by 158,334 MT to 856,926. Exports under license to the United States are unchanged at 531,409 MT.
WHEAT: The 2024/25 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is for slightly higher domestic use that leads to lower ending stocks. Food use is raised 4 million bushels to 970 million, as wheat flour grind during the October-December quarter was up 2 percent from last year as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report. Projected ending stocks decrease 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year.
The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly larger supplies and higher consumption but lower trade and ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.6 million tons to 1,061.3 million, primarily on higher production for Kazakhstan and Argentina.
Global consumption is increased 1.8 million tons to 803.7 million on higher feed and residual use for the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine. World trade declines 3.0 million tons to 209.0 million with export reductions for the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. The largest import change is a decrease for China of 2.5 million tons to 8.0 million on a continued sluggish import pace. These would be their lowest imports in five years and China was the leading world wheat importer last year at 13.6 million tons. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 million, on a reduction for China that is only partly offset by increases for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.