NOTE: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year (FY) 2024/25 is increased by 143,758 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.461 million on increases in high-tier tariff imports and beginning stocks more than offsetting a decrease in sugar production.
Raw high-tier tariff imports entering the United States from October 1 through the first week of April totaled 261,758 STRV, an increase of 88,070 over the previous month. Refined high-tier tariff imports totaled 237,104 STRV over the same period for a monthly average of 39,517 STRV.
A decrease in the pace is posited as more likely than an increase or unchanged due to historically high current levels of refined beet and cane sugar that could increase competition for refined high-tier from the domestically produced product.
Monthly entries for the remaining 6 months of the fiscal year are projected, therefore, at 75 percent of the first six-month average, implying total high-tier refined at 414,931 STRV. Molasses imported as an input in sugar refining is unchanged at a sugar-equivalence of 54,645 STRV.
Sugar production is decreased 39,316 STRV, mostly on lower cane sugar production in Florida from lower sugarcane yields reported by processors. With no changes for sugar use, ending stocks are projected up by the supply increase to 2.016 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16.20 percent. The sugar balance in Mexico is unchanged from last month.
WHEAT: This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, slightly smaller domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher projected imports, up 10 million bushels to 150 million, with increases for Hard Red Spring (HRS), Durum, White, and Hard Red Winter (HRW).
At this level, imports would be the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use, based primarily on the March NASS Prospective Plantings report. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 120 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class revisions based on the March 31 NASS Grain Stocks report.
Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million with reductions to HRS and HRW. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 27 million bushels to 846 million, 22 percent above the previous year. The season average farm price is unchanged at $5.50 per bushel.
The 2024/25 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller supplies, consumption, and exports and larger ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 0.8 million tons to 1,065.9 million primarily on reduced production estimates for Saudi Arabia and the EU, as well as lower beginning stock estimates for Uzbekistan and Israel. World consumption is forecast 1.4 million tons lower to 805.2 million, primarily on lower food, seed, and industrial use for India and China. Projected 2024/25 global trade is cut 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million, mostly on lower export forecasts for Russia, Australia, and the EU that are only partly offset by increases for Canada and Ukraine.
Exports for 2024/25 are expected to be 7 percent lower than the previous year. Projected 2024/25 world ending stocks are increased 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million as higher stocks for India, Russia, the United States, and the EU are partly offset by a decrease for China. Global stocks for 2024/25 are now three percent below the previous year and the lowest since 2015/16.