SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is increased by 231,466 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.251 million on an increase in imports only partially offset by reduced sugar production and lower beginning stocks.
High-tier raw sugar imports are increased 118,712 STRV to 161,313 on actual imports recorded by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) through the first week of December. High-tier refined sugar imports are unchanged from last month at 260,535 STRV and the sugar-equivalent of molasses imported by refiners is also unchanged at 54,645 STRV.
Imports from Mexico are expected to increase 225,963 STRV to 620,925 to meet U.S. needs as stipulated this month in the CVD Suspension Agreement administrated by the Department of Commerce.
Beet sugar production is decreased by 50,000 STRV on lower amounts of sugar extracted from sugarbeet molasses. Because there are no use changes, the change in supply flows through to ending stocks for a projected total of 1.696 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent.
For 2023/24, re-export imports as estimated by FAS are increased 46,032 STRV to 271,521. Deliveries for human consumption from direct consumption imports increase by the 46,032 STRV-total to 12.400 million STRV. There are no changes to components of supply and use in the Mexico balance sheet for either 2023/24 or 2024/25. Although 2024/25 total exports are projected unchanged at 1.006 million metric tons (MT), exports under license to the United States increase 193,
WHEAT: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks. Imports are raised 5 million bushels to 125 million on a strong pace for Hard Red Spring.
Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million. White wheat exports are increased 15 million bushels to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets. Exports for Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Spring are both raised 5 million bushels. Projected wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million, still up 14 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for lower supplies, consumption, and trade and slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies decline 0.6 million tons to 1,060.4 million, as larger beginning stocks are more than offset by lower global production. Production is forecast lower for the European Union, down 1.3 million tons to 121.3 million, on harvest data showing lower production for several member states. Brazil’s crop is also forecast lower on updated harvest data.
Global trade is forecast down 1.0 million tons to 213.7 million tons as reductions for EU and Russia exports more than offset higher U.S. and Ukraine exports. Exports are forecast down 1.0 million tons to 47.0 million for Russia, despite a strong start to the marketing year, as the imposition of an export quota is expected to constrain exports for the remainder of the marketing year. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 0.3 million tons to 257.9 million but are still the lowest since 2015/16.