SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is increased 242,943 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.494 million on increases in beet sugar production, imports and beginning stocks.
Beet sugar production is increased 178,030 STRV to 5.338 million mainly on an increase in beet sugar recovery from sliced sugarbeets from 14.751 percent last month (10-year Olympic average) to 15.106 (statistically derived from recovery data for the August-November portion of the 2024/25 crop year sugar campaign).
High-tier tariff/Other imports are increased 40,387 STRV on imports recorded by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) through the first week of January above what was expected for the period last month. Projected 2024/25 high-tier raw sugar is at 166,966 STRV and hightier refined is at 295,269 STRV. Sugar from imported molasses is unchanged at 54,645 STRV. Beginning stocks are increased 24,054 STRV on changes made by refiners and processors in the revised 2023/24 Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Because there are no use changes, the change in supply flows through to ending stocks for a projected total of 1.939 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.44 percent.
For 2024/25 in Mexico, additional imports of 9,434 metric tons (MT), previously contracted, are expected to enter during the marketing year. With ending stocks unchanged, exports are increased by that same amount. Exports under license to the United States are unchanged at 531,409 MT. All of the change is for exports not under license.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies and domestic use, unchanged exports, and marginally higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher imports, increased 5 million bushels to 130 million, all on Hard Red Spring. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 120 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes based on the NASS Grain Stocks report
Seed use is increased 2 million bushels to 64 million, based on the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Exports are unchanged at 850 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $5.55 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly larger supplies, lower consumption, reduced trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.4 million tons to 1,060.7 million as higher production for Syria and Pakistan more than offsets a reduction for Uruguay.
Global consumption is lowered 0.6 million tons to 801.9 million, primarily on reductions for Turkey partially offset by Ukraine. World trade is 1.7 million tons lower at 212.0 million on decreased exports for Russia and Ukraine. Russia’s exports are forecast at 46.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and well below last year’s record of 55.5 million. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons to 258.8 million, primarily on increases for Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, and Ukraine more than offsetting reductions for Turkey, China, and Indonesia.